I would say the chances of the Bill passing into law before 2014 are 50/50. To show my age, I’m quoting the Music Man, “Ya got trouble in River City.” In this case, “Ya got trouble in the House of Representatives.” The House is different than the Senate and much more susceptible to public opinion.
So the House Republicans have to return to their districts and basically say, “We voted for an n Immigration Bill that has no real teeth to secure the Border.” If that happens, many House Republicans will have competitive primaries to win even before the general election in 2014. No matter if one is politically right or left, the Senate Bill requires legalization of aliens before Border Security and the language of the Senate Bill uses ambiguous language such as
“Notwithstanding paragraph (1), nothing in this subsection shall require the Secretary to install fencing, or infrastructure that directly results from the installation of such fencing, in a particular location along the Southern border, if the Secretary determines that the use or placement of such resources is not the most appropriate means to achieve and maintain effective control over the Southern border at such location.”
Now there are some legal scholars who believe that this language still requires the Secretary of Homeland Security to provide 750 miles of fence, but the language is confusing, and this makes the House Republicans more suspicious. In addition, there is language that gives the Department of Homeland Security some discretion, and that is a problem for the House of Representatives who clearly do not trust Janet Napolitano. The issue may be thrown back to the Senate that will need to decide if the agree to add a clear unambiguous triggers for securing the border before legalization can occur.
My prediction is 50/50 for new immigration law, and the closer to 2014, the more likely that there will be no Immigration Bill passed, and it will have to be raised again with a new Senate and House of Representatives after the 2014 elections.
New York City Immigration Attorney Andrew P Johnson, Esq. has been quoted regarding Immigration Law by the New York Times, CBS, and Daily News. (links below)